

********* This program generates the results in Table 3, Panel A, of the paper: placebo robustness check  *************


clear all
set more off, permanently

cd "$localdir\Data"
global output "$localdir\Output"





***************************************************** ASSESSMENT OF NATIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE ******************************************************

* Outcome only available in 2011 and 2012

use "RF_placebo_estimate", clear

keep if unemp_rate_estimate!=. & grossunemp_enter_network!=.

bysort unique year: egen grossunemp_enter_network_share=mean(grossunemp_enter_network)
drop *_network
duplicates drop unique year, force

tab year 

lab var grossunemp_enter_network_share "Unemployment shock (network share)"

replace unemp_rate_estimate=unemp_rate_estimate/100

* Results
display c(current_time)
reghdfe unemp_rate_estimate grossunemp_enter_network_share, absorb(both ind2_year ocp_year educ_year) cluster(muni)
sum unemp_rate_estimate if e(sample)==1
local mean_outcome=r(mean)
local sd_outcome=r(sd)
sum grossunemp_enter_network_share if e(sample)==1
local mean_shock=r(mean)
local sd_shock=r(sd)
outreg2 using "$output\Table3_PanelA.xls", replace nocons nor ctitle("Guess national unemployment rate") bdec(3) sdec(3) adec(3) label keep(grossunemp_enter_network_share) ///
adds(Outcome mean,`mean_outcome', Outcome sd,`sd_outcome', Unemployment shock mean,`mean_shock',  Unemployment shock sd,`sd_shock')

display c(current_time)









***************************************************** FORECAST OF NATIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE ******************************************************

* Outcome only available in 2011

use "RF_placebo_estimate_next.dta", clear

keep if unemp_rate_estimate_next!=. & grossunemp_enter_network!=.

bysort unique year: egen grossunemp_enter_network_share=mean(grossunemp_enter_network)
drop *_network
duplicates drop unique year, force

tab year 

lab var grossunemp_enter_network_share "Unemployment shock (network share)"

replace unemp_rate_estimate_next=unemp_rate_estimate_next/100

* Results
display c(current_time)
reghdfe unemp_rate_estimate_next grossunemp_enter_network_share, absorb(both ind2_year ocp_year educ_year) cluster(muni)
sum unemp_rate_estimate_next if e(sample)==1
local mean_outcome=r(mean)
local sd_outcome=r(sd)
sum grossunemp_enter_network_share if e(sample)==1
local mean_shock=r(mean)
local sd_shock=r(sd)
outreg2 using "$output\Table3_PanelA.xls", append nocons nor ctitle("National unemployment rate expectation") bdec(3) sdec(3) adec(3) label keep(grossunemp_enter_network_share) ///
adds(Outcome mean,`mean_outcome', Outcome sd,`sd_outcome', Unemployment shock mean,`mean_shock',  Unemployment shock sd,`sd_shock')

display c(current_time)






***************************************************** UNEMPLOYMENT OUTCOMES - PROBABILITY ******************************************************

use "RF_placebo_unemployment", clear

keep if prob_unemployed!=. & grossunemp_enter_network!=.

bysort unique year: egen grossunemp_enter_network_share=mean(grossunemp_enter_network)
drop *_network
duplicates drop unique year, force

tab year 

lab var grossunemp_enter_network_share "Unemployment shock (network share)"

replace prob_unemployed=prob_unemployed/100

* Results
display c(current_time)
reghdfe prob_unemployed grossunemp_enter_network_share, absorb(both ind2_year ocp_year educ_year) cluster(muni)
sum prob_unemployed if e(sample)==1
local mean_outcome=r(mean)
local sd_outcome=r(sd)
sum grossunemp_enter_network_share if e(sample)==1
local mean_shock=r(mean)
local sd_shock=r(sd)
outreg2 using "$output\Table3_PanelA.xls", append nocons nor ctitle("Own unemployment expectation") bdec(3) sdec(3) adec(3) label keep(grossunemp_enter_network_share) ///
adds(Outcome mean,`mean_outcome', Outcome sd,`sd_outcome', Unemployment shock mean,`mean_shock',  Unemployment shock sd,`sd_shock')

display c(current_time)













***************************************************** UNEMPLOYMENT OUTCOMES - UI POLICY ******************************************************

use "RF_placebo_ui", clear

keep if more_ui!=. & grossunemp_enter_network!=.

bysort unique year: egen grossunemp_enter_network_share=mean(grossunemp_enter_network)
drop *_network
duplicates drop unique year, force

tab year 

lab var grossunemp_enter_network_share "Unemployment shock (network share)"

* Results
display c(current_time)
reghdfe more_ui grossunemp_enter_network_share, absorb(both ind2_year ocp_year educ_year) cluster(muni)
sum more_ui if e(sample)==1
local mean_outcome=r(mean)
local sd_outcome=r(sd)
sum grossunemp_enter_network_share if e(sample)==1
local mean_shock=r(mean)
local sd_shock=r(sd)
outreg2 using "$output\Table3_PanelA.xls", append nocons nor ctitle("Want more unemployment insurance") bdec(3) sdec(3) adec(3) label keep(grossunemp_enter_network_share) ///
adds(Outcome mean,`mean_outcome', Outcome sd,`sd_outcome', Unemployment shock mean,`mean_shock',  Unemployment shock sd,`sd_shock')

display c(current_time)








***************************************************** IDEOLOGY OUTCOMES ******************************************************

use "RF_placebo_ideology", clear

keep if govt_more_help!=. & grossunemp_enter_network!=.

bysort unique year: egen grossunemp_enter_network_share=mean(grossunemp_enter_network)
drop *_network
duplicates drop unique year, force

tab year 

lab var grossunemp_enter_network_share "Unemployment shock (network share)"

* Results
display c(current_time)
reghdfe govt_more_help grossunemp_enter_network_share, absorb(both ind2_year ocp_year educ_year) cluster(muni)
sum govt_more_help if e(sample)==1
local mean_outcome=r(mean)
local sd_outcome=r(sd)
sum grossunemp_enter_network_share if e(sample)==1
local mean_shock=r(mean)
local sd_shock=r(sd)
outreg2 using "$output\Table3_PanelA.xls", append nocons nor ctitle("Government should support the poor") bdec(3) sdec(3) adec(3) label keep(grossunemp_enter_network_share) ///
adds(Outcome mean,`mean_outcome', Outcome sd,`sd_outcome', Unemployment shock mean,`mean_shock',  Unemployment shock sd,`sd_shock')

display c(current_time)











***************************************************** ECONOMIC POLICY ******************************************************

* These questions were not asked in 2012

use "RF_placebo_policy", clear

keep if gov_solution!=. & grossunemp_enter_network!=.

bysort unique year: egen grossunemp_enter_network_share=mean(grossunemp_enter_network)
drop *_network
duplicates drop unique year, force

tab year 

lab var grossunemp_enter_network_share "Unemployment shock (network share)"

* Results
display c(current_time)
reghdfe gov_solution grossunemp_enter_network_share, absorb(both ind2_year ocp_year educ_year) cluster(muni)
sum gov_solution if e(sample)==1
local mean_outcome=r(mean)
local sd_outcome=r(sd)
sum grossunemp_enter_network_share if e(sample)==1
local mean_shock=r(mean)
local sd_shock=r(sd)
outreg2 using "$output\Table3_PanelA.xls", append nocons nor ctitle("Support non-market-based stimulus") bdec(3) sdec(3) adec(3) label keep(grossunemp_enter_network_share) ///
adds(Outcome mean,`mean_outcome', Outcome sd,`sd_outcome', Unemployment shock mean,`mean_shock',  Unemployment shock sd,`sd_shock')

display c(current_time)








***************************************************** VOTING LEFT (INTENTION) ******************************************************

use "RF_placebo_voting", clear

keep if vote_left!=. & grossunemp_enter_network!=.

bysort unique year: egen grossunemp_enter_network_share=mean(grossunemp_enter_network)
drop *_network
duplicates drop unique year, force

tab year 

lab var grossunemp_enter_network_share "Unemployment shock (network share)"

* Results
display c(current_time)
reghdfe vote_left grossunemp_enter_network_share, absorb(both ind2_year ocp_year educ_year) cluster(muni)
sum vote_left if e(sample)==1
local mean_outcome=r(mean)
local sd_outcome=r(sd)
sum grossunemp_enter_network_share if e(sample)==1
local mean_shock=r(mean)
local sd_shock=r(sd)
outreg2 using "$output\Table3_PanelA.xls", append nocons nor ctitle("Intend to vote for left party") bdec(3) sdec(3) adec(3) label keep(grossunemp_enter_network_share) ///
adds(Outcome mean,`mean_outcome', Outcome sd,`sd_outcome', Unemployment shock mean,`mean_shock',  Unemployment shock sd,`sd_shock')

display c(current_time)











***************************************************** VOTED LEFT ******************************************************

* These questions were only asked in 2011 - ie the year before which the shocks definitely occurred before the election

use "RF_placebo_voted", clear

keep if voted_left_2011!=. & grossunemp_enter_network!=.

bysort unique year: egen grossunemp_enter_network_share=mean(grossunemp_enter_network)
drop *_network
duplicates drop unique year, force

tab year 

lab var grossunemp_enter_network_share "Unemployment shock (network share)"

* Results
display c(current_time)
reghdfe voted_left_2011 grossunemp_enter_network_share, absorb(both ind2_year ocp_year educ_year) cluster(muni)
sum voted_left_2011 if e(sample)==1
local mean_outcome=r(mean)
local sd_outcome=r(sd)
sum grossunemp_enter_network_share if e(sample)==1
local mean_shock=r(mean)
local sd_shock=r(sd)
outreg2 using "$output\Table3_PanelA.xls", append nocons nor ctitle("Voted for left party in 2001") bdec(3) sdec(3) adec(3) label keep(grossunemp_enter_network_share) ///
adds(Outcome mean,`mean_outcome', Outcome sd,`sd_outcome', Unemployment shock mean,`mean_shock',  Unemployment shock sd,`sd_shock')

display c(current_time)









































